UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
52%
Moises
48%
Ogden
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moises
This is a genuine toss-up — Moises at 52% vs Ogden at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Moises has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Moises throws more volume but Ogden connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moises
Ogden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+72"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moises
Ogden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
37.3
42.7
Performance Avg
35.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
40
Moises
Ogden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.6
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
10Ground1
Moises
Ogden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moises
Ogden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
7/25 fights
Moises
Ogden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Moises
Ogden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moises
Ogden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
MoisesOgden
Strike Zones
Moises
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedOgden
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ogden absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Ogden targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moises
RND
Ogden
0/0R00/0
Moises · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ogden · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Moises · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gauge YoungRating 6.1Decision
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