METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
54%
Moises
46%
Ogden
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Thiago MoiseswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Trey Ogden · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moises
→
Actual result
Moises wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Moises at 54% vs Ogden at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Moises has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Moises's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MoisesOgden
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moises
Ogden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+72"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moises
Ogden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
33.5
42.7
Performance Avg
35.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
40
Moises
Ogden
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
1.5
5.0
Style: Volume
9.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
10Ground1
Moises
Ogden
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moises
Ogden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
7/25 fights
Moises
Ogden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Moises
Ogden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moises
Ogden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
MoisesOgden
Strike Zones
Moises
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedOgden
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moises targets the head (91% of attacks) — Ogden absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Ogden targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moises absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moises
RND
Ogden
0/0R00/0
Moises · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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