UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2012
Middleweight
VS
46%
Natal
54%
Kuiper
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
MK
Michael Kuiper
15 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kuiper

This is a genuine toss-up — Natal at 46% vs Kuiper at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kuiper has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Kuiper has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Natal
Kuiper
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
73"
43
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Kuiper
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
17.8
40.5
Performance Avg
43.0
30
Quality of Victory
55
81
Momentum Score
43
Natal
Kuiper
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
71%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
18
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground17
Natal
Kuiper
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Kuiper
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/20 fights
Natal
Kuiper
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Kuiper
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Kuiper
Striking2.2 / 10.0Volume7.3 / 0.5Grappling2.8 / 0.0Wrestling1.9 / 0.0Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure3.2 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Natal
Strike Zones
Kuiper
Natal
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD0BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Kuiper
Attacking
18HEAD0BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kuiper absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kuiper targets the head (100% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Kuiper
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Kuiper · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0105.5L5.2W2.8L1.5L2012-022012-082013-042013-10
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Kuiper · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Brad ScottRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz · 2013-10
L · Sub · R2
Tom LawlorRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
W · KO · R2
Jared HammanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Michael Kuiper
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