UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
Auburn Hills, USA
20 Nov 2010
Welterweight
VS
51%
Hughes
49%
Penn
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:21
MH
Matt Hughes
45 – 9
5'9"73" reachSwitch52 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 23
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
Well-Rounded7-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hughes

This is a genuine toss-up — Hughes at 51% vs Penn at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hughes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hughes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Penn has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hughes
Penn
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
52
Age
+47
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Hughes
Penn
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.0
22.2
64.6
Performance Avg
56.9
60
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
100
Hughes
Penn
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Hughes
Penn
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hughes
Penn
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/54 fights
Chin rating based on
27/30 fights
Hughes
Penn
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Hughes
Penn
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
61%
83%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
4
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hughes
Penn
Striking4.8 / 6.0Volume3.7 / 1.6Grappling2.9 / 2.9Wrestling2.0 / 2.0Submission2.8 / 3.3Pressure6.4 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.6
Hughes
Strike Zones
Penn
Hughes
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Penn
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hughes targets the head (67% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Penn targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hughes absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hughes
RND
Penn
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hughes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W4.0W1.5L5.1W5.4W5.4W4.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W2.1L2.8L4.5W5.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L1999-092003-042006-052010-042011-09
WinLossTrend

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Hughes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh KoscheckRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
L · KO · R1
BJ PennRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5
Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · KO · R3
Renzo GracieRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

News & Media

Matt Hughes · BJ Penn
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