UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Bantamweight
VS
95%
Martinez
5%
Oliveira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:38
David
David Martinez
14 – 1
5'5"67" reachOrthodox27 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 68
Saimon
Saimon Oliveira
18 – 7
Well-Rounded4-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'4"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Martinez

Martinez is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 65 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Martinez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.

Martinez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Martinez
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"
Reach
+72"
27+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Martinez
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.1
3.4
62.0
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Martinez
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
1.4
45%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
3
1
Body
3
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance7
5Clinch0
8Ground0
Martinez
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Martinez
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
42
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/15 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Martinez
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Martinez
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Martinez
Oliveira
Striking5.3 / 0.0Volume7.3 / 0.0Grappling1.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Martinez
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Martinez
Attacking
21HEAD1BODY5LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD1BODY5LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Martinez targets the head (78% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (43% of attacks) — Martinez absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Martinez
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Martinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.7W5.3W2025-032025-092026-02
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L4.0L3.2L3.2L2022-012023-012025-032025-10
WinLossTrend

Martinez · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Saimon OliveiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

Oliveira · Last 4

L · Sub · R2
Luan LacerdaRating 3.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
David MartinezRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Daniel MarcosRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony GravelyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01

News & Media

David Martinez · Saimon Oliveira
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