UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Pavlovich
52%
Acosta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Acosta
This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 48% vs Acosta at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pavlovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Acosta connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich
Acosta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
84"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Acosta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
65.8
60.6
Performance Avg
55.7
53
Quality of Victory
42
59
Momentum Score
100
Pavlovich
Acosta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
2.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
8.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
7
6
Body
1
8
Leg
6
RangeRange
30Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pavlovich
Acosta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Acosta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Pavlovich
Acosta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Pavlovich
Acosta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Acosta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
PavlovichAcosta
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedAcosta
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (53% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Acosta targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Acosta
0/0R00/0
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Acosta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
Tallison TeixeiraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Acosta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Shamil GazievRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08