Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

Shanghai, China

23 Aug 2025

Heavyweight

49%

Pavlovich

51%

Acosta

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Sergei Pavlovich

20 – 3

6'3"84" reachSouthpaw34 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 64

Waldo Cortes Acosta

"Salsa Boy"

17 – 3

Striker34 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"

CFR 66

★ Official Result

Sergei PavlovichwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Waldo Cortes Acosta · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Acosta

→

Actual result

Pavlovich wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 49% vs Acosta at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Pavlovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Risk flags

Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

PavlovichAcosta

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Pavlovich

Acosta

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"

Height

+6'4"

84"+

Reach

78"

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Pavlovich

Acosta

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.5

65.8

62.0

Performance Avg

55.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Pavlovich

Acosta

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

9.3

/ 10

6.5

/ 10

7.7

Style: Pressure

5.8

3.3

Style: Volume

5.5

7 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

30Distance14

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Pavlovich

Acosta

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.5

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

0.4

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.8

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Pavlovich

Acosta

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/23 fights

Chin rating based on

14/20 fights

Pavlovich

Acosta

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

Pavlovich

Acosta

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

78%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pavlovich

Acosta

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

9.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.5

0.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.2

0.4

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.8

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

7.7

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.8

3.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.5

Pavlovich

Strike Zones

Acosta

Pavlovich

Attacking

30 landed

Absorbing

14 absorbed

Acosta

Attacking

14 landed

Absorbing

30 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Pavlovich targets the head (53% of attacks) — Acosta absorbs 53% of strikes there

🎯Acosta targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pavlovich

RND

Acosta

0/0R00/0

Pavlovich · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Tallison Teixeira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

W · Dec · R3

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Decision

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W · Dec · R3

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Decision

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Alexander Volkov

Decision

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Tom Aspinall

KO/TKO

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Acosta · Last 5

Upcoming

Curtis Blaydes

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · KO · R2

Derrick Lewis

KO/TKO

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R1

Shamil Gaziev

KO/TKO

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W · KO · R1

Ante Delija

KO/TKO

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News & Media

Sergei Pavlovich · Waldo Cortes Acosta

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