UFC 37: High Impact
Bossier City, USA
10 May 2002
Welterweight
VS
78%
Lawler
22%
Riley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lawler
Lawler is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Riley has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
Riley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
69"
44+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Lawler
Riley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
11.4
51.0
Performance Avg
28.3
45
Quality of Victory
25
90
Momentum Score
45
Lawler
Riley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
32%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
4
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
10Distance5
9Clinch2
5Ground0
Lawler
Riley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Riley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
9/44 fights
Lawler
Riley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
45
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Lawler
Riley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
Riley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
LawlerRiley
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedRiley
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (79% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Riley targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
Riley
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Riley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Riley · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08