METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Las Vegas, USA
28 May 2011
Bantamweight
VS
61%
McDonald
39%
Cariaso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michael McDonaldwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Cariaso · UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McDonald
→
Actual result
McDonald wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
McDonald holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Cariaso has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
McDonald's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McDonaldCariaso
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McDonald
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'3"
70"+
Reach
64"
35+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McDonald
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
14.0
53.6
Performance Avg
39.1
45
Quality of Victory
29
100
Momentum Score
45
McDonald
Cariaso
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
2.6
4.0
Style: Volume
7.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
6
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
McDonald
Cariaso
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McDonald
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
McDonald
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
McDonald
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McDonald
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
McDonaldCariaso
Strike Zones
McDonald
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McDonald targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the body (55% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McDonald
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaSubmission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberSubmission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoSubmission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoDecision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonSubmission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezDecision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02