UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Las Vegas, USA
28 May 2011
Bantamweight
VS
61%
McDonald
39%
Cariaso
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McDonald
McDonald holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Cariaso has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Cariaso has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
McDonald's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cariaso has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McDonald
Cariaso
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'3"
70"+
Reach
64"
35+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McDonald
Cariaso
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
14.0
53.6
Performance Avg
39.1
45
Quality of Victory
29
100
Momentum Score
45
McDonald
Cariaso
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
6
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground0
McDonald
Cariaso
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McDonald
Cariaso
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
McDonald
Cariaso
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
McDonald
Cariaso
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McDonald
Cariaso
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
McDonaldCariaso
Strike Zones
McDonald
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCariaso
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McDonald targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Cariaso absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Cariaso targets the body (55% of attacks) — McDonald absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McDonald
RND
Cariaso
0/0R00/0
McDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Cariaso · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
McDonald · Last 5
L · KO · R1
John LinekerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · 2016-07
W · Sub · R2
Masanori KaneharaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
L · Sub · R2
Urijah FaberRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Sub · R2
Brad PickettRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · Sub · R4
Renan BaraoRating 3.4Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
Cariaso · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7Decision
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Demetrious JohnsonRating 2.1Submission
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09
W · Dec · R3
Louis SmolkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Danny MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02