UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2015
Bantamweight
VS
70%
Sterling
30%
Eduardo
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Eduardo throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Eduardo has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Sterling
Eduardo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
71"
36+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Eduardo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
23.2
54.2
Performance Avg
43.0
38
Quality of Victory
47
71
Momentum Score
30
Sterling
Eduardo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
0
5
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance2
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Sterling
Eduardo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Eduardo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
8/41 fights
Sterling
Eduardo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
Sterling
Eduardo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Eduardo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
SterlingEduardo
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedEduardo
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (65% of attacks) — Eduardo absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Eduardo targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Eduardo
0/0R00/0
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Eduardo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Eduardo · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R2
Nathaniel WoodRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Matthew LopezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · KO · R2
Manvel GamburyanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
L · Sub · R2
Aljamain SterlingRating 3.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12