UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Welterweight
VS
61%
Fitch
39%
Thiago
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fitch

Fitch holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Thiago has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Fitch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thiago has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fitch
Thiago
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
48
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fitch
Thiago
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
13.5
52.4
Performance Avg
37.5
32
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
39
Fitch
Thiago
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
57%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch2
6Ground1
Fitch
Thiago
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fitch
Thiago
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
44
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Fitch
Thiago
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Fitch
Thiago
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Thiago
Striking2.4 / 2.8Volume7.4 / 5.6Grappling3.4 / 3.0Wrestling2.4 / 2.1Submission2.1 / 2.0Pressure4.5 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Fitch
Strike Zones
Thiago
Fitch
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Thiago
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (86% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Thiago targets the head (67% of attacks) — Fitch absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Thiago
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Paulo Thiago
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