METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Lightweight
VS
64%
Gugerty
36%
Grice
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:36
★ Official Result
Shannon GugertywinsSubmissionR1 · 2:36
def. Matt Grice · UFC 100
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gugerty
→
Actual result
Gugerty wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Gugerty holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Grice has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gugerty has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Risk flags
Gugerty's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Grice has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GugertyGrice
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gugerty
Grice
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
44+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gugerty
Grice
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
10.6
48.4
Performance Avg
26.4
54
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
55
Gugerty
Grice
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
0.9
0.8
Style: Volume
8.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch3
1Ground0
Gugerty
Grice
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gugerty
Grice
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
30
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/20 fights
Gugerty
Grice
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Gugerty
Grice
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gugerty
Grice
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
GugertyGrice
Strike Zones
Gugerty
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGrice
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gugerty targets the head (100% of attacks) — Grice absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Grice targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gugerty absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gugerty
RND
Grice
0/0R00/0
Gugerty · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaSubmission
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimSubmission
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Sub · R1
Matt GriceSubmission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · Sub · R3
Spencer FisherSubmission
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
W · Sub · R1
Dale HarttSubmission
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
Grice · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezDecision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaDecision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasKO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Sub · R1
Shannon GugertySubmission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R1
Matt VeachKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02