UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Lightweight
VS
64%
Gugerty
36%
Grice
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gugerty
Gugerty holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Grice has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gugerty has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Grice has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gugerty's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Grice has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gugerty
Grice
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gugerty
Grice
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
10.6
48.4
Performance Avg
26.4
54
Quality of Victory
25
52
Momentum Score
55
Gugerty
Grice
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
2.3
30%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch3
1Ground0
Gugerty
Grice
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gugerty
Grice
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
30
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/22 fights
Chin rating based on
7/20 fights
Gugerty
Grice
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Gugerty
Grice
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gugerty
Grice
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.9
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
GugertyGrice
Strike Zones
Gugerty
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGrice
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gugerty targets the head (100% of attacks) — Grice absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Grice targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Gugerty absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gugerty
RND
Grice
0/0R00/0
Gugerty · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Grice · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Gugerty · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimRating 2.8Submission
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Sub · R1
Matt GriceRating 5Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · Sub · R3
Spencer FisherRating 4Submission
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
W · Sub · R1
Dale HarttRating 5Submission
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
Grice · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Dennis BermudezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
L · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Sub · R1
Shannon GugertyRating 1.5Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · KO · R1
Matt VeachRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lauzon vs Stephens · 2009-02