METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Mar 2015
Lightweight
VS
57%
Burns
43%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:14
★ Official Result
Gilbert BurnswinsSubmissionR3 · 4:14
def. Alex Oliveira · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Burns
→
Actual result
Burns wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Burns at 57% vs Oliveira at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BurnsOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Burns
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+76"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Burns
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
29.9
48.1
Performance Avg
46.5
40
Quality of Victory
43
28
Momentum Score
100
Burns
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Burns
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.7
5
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
22/34 fights
Burns
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Burns
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
3
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
BurnsOliveira
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07