UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Catch Weight
VS
92%
Ruffy
8%
Llontop
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mauricio
Mauricio Ruffy
13 – 2
5'11"75" reachOrthodox29 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 69
James
James Llontop
"Goku"
14 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide26 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 6

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ruffy

Ruffy is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ruffy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.

Striking split: Llontop throws more volume but Ruffy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Ruffy
Llontop
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
73"
29
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ruffy
Llontop
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.7
6.0
62.0
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
87
Momentum Score
0
Ruffy
Llontop
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
3.3
57%
Strike Accuracy
43%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
15
3
Body
22
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
20Distance31
2Clinch14
0Ground0
Ruffy
Llontop
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ruffy
Llontop
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
3/19 fights
Ruffy
Llontop
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Ruffy
Llontop
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ruffy
Llontop
Striking9.1 / 0.0Volume3.6 / 0.0Grappling0.6 / 0.0Wrestling0.4 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Ruffy
Strike Zones
Llontop
Ruffy
Attacking
19HEAD3BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD22BODY8LEGS45 absorbed
Llontop
Attacking
15HEAD22BODY8LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD3BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ruffy targets the head (86% of attacks) — Llontop absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Llontop targets the body (49% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 49% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ruffy
RND
Llontop
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ruffy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.2W4.5W5.7W4.5L6.2W2024-052024-112025-032025-092026-01
WinLossTrend

Llontop · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0103.3L6.0L7.2L2024-042024-082024-11
WinLossTrend

Ruffy · Last 5

Upcoming
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UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
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KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

Llontop · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuffyRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Chris PadillaRating 3.3
Submission
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News & Media

Mauricio Ruffy · James Llontop
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