UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
London, United Kingdom
21 Mar 2026
Middleweight
VS
49%
Dolidze
51%
Duncan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Roman
Roman Dolidze
15 – 5
6'2"76" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 63
Christian
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
14 – 2
Knockout Artist4-fight win streak30 yrsSwitch79" reach6'2"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Duncan

This is a genuine toss-up — Dolidze at 49% vs Duncan at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Duncan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Dolidze
Duncan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+79"
37
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Dolidze
Duncan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
64.8
52.0
Performance Avg
59.8
44
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
72
Dolidze
Duncan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
63%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
0
Body
1
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
3Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Dolidze
Duncan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dolidze
Duncan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
9/16 fights
Dolidze
Duncan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Dolidze
Duncan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
71%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dolidze
Duncan
Striking6.8 / 8.7Volume4.8 / 3.8Grappling1.1 / 0.7Wrestling0.8 / 0.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Dolidze
Strike Zones
Duncan
Dolidze
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY10LEGS18 absorbed
Duncan
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY10LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dolidze targets the head (67% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Duncan targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Dolidze absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dolidze
RND
Duncan
0/0R00/0

Dolidze · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.0W4.5W5.7L4.5W5.6W5.0W6.2W6.3L6.9L5.7W5.6W5.3W4.8L7.0L2020-072022-062024-022025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Duncan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0105.4W5.5L5.3W5.6W7.1L5.6W5.8W6.6W5.9W2023-032024-032025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Dolidze · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
L · Sub · R4
Anthony HernandezRating 4.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony SmithRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Duncan · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R2
Marco TulioRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Gregory RodriguesRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

News & Media

Roman Dolidze · Christian Leroy Duncan
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