METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Esparza
54%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carla EsparzawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Marina Rodriguez · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Rodriguez
→
Actual result
Esparza wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 46% vs Rodriguez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodriguez has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaRodriguez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+65"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
48.6
45.9
Performance Avg
41.7
35
Quality of Victory
34
60
Momentum Score
83
Esparza
Rodriguez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
3.6
7.7
Style: Volume
6.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
5
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
1Clinch0
14Ground1
Esparza
Rodriguez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Esparza
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
83
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Esparza
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Rodriguez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
EsparzaRodriguez
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedRodriguez
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Michelle Waterson-GomezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaDecision
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