UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Esparza
54%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Marina
Marina Rodriguez
17 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 46% vs Rodriguez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Esparza
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'6"
63"
Reach
+65"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
48.6
45.9
Performance Avg
41.7
35
Quality of Victory
34
60
Momentum Score
83
Esparza
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
5
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance5
1Clinch0
14Ground1
Esparza
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Esparza
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
83
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Esparza
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
29%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Rodriguez
Striking2.3 / 3.9Volume7.7 / 6.8Grappling2.7 / 1.7Wrestling1.9 / 1.2Submission1.0 / 0.0Pressure3.3 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Esparza
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Esparza
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (83% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.2W5.8L5.4W4.5W5.7W5.5W3.8L6.2L5.2W6.3L6.4L4.0L2019-032021-052023-052025-05
WinLossTrend

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Rodriguez · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Marina Rodriguez
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