UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Women's Strawweight
VS
74%
Suarez
26%
Nunes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Suarez
Suarez is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Suarez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Striking split: Nunes throws more volume but Suarez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Suarez
Nunes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"+
Reach
64"
35+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Suarez
Nunes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
72.7
25.7
64.5
Performance Avg
39.6
48
Quality of Victory
29
100
Momentum Score
70
Suarez
Nunes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
19
9
Body
10
17
Leg
1
RangeRange
29Distance29
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Suarez
Nunes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Suarez
Nunes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
82
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/14 fights
Chin rating based on
9/18 fights
Suarez
Nunes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Suarez
Nunes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Suarez
Nunes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
5.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
SuarezNunes
Strike Zones
Suarez
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedNunes
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Suarez targets the legs (52% of attacks) — Nunes absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Nunes targets the head (63% of attacks) — Suarez absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Suarez
RND
Nunes
0/0R00/0
Suarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Nunes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Suarez · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Loopy GodinezRating 5.7Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 5.6Decision
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UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Sub · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Montana De La RosaRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
Nunes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Cynthia CalvilloRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Mackenzie DernRating 2.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · Dec · R3
Tatiana SuarezRating 7.4Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Claudia GadelhaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Randa MarkosRating 4.5Decision
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