UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Las Vegas, USA
16 Mar 2024
Middleweight
VS
57%
Meerschaert
43%
Barberena
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Meerschaert
This is a genuine toss-up — Meerschaert at 57% vs Barberena at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barberena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Meerschaert's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barberena has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Meerschaert
Barberena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
72"
38
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Meerschaert
Barberena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
43.3
48.2
Performance Avg
43.9
50
Quality of Victory
42
91
Momentum Score
76
Meerschaert
Barberena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Meerschaert
Barberena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
7.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
5.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Meerschaert
Barberena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/59 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Meerschaert
Barberena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
76
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Meerschaert
Barberena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
56%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
11
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Meerschaert
Barberena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
7.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
5.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
9.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
MeerschaertBarberena
Strike Zones
Meerschaert
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBarberena
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (75% of attacks) — Barberena absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Barberena targets the head (100% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Meerschaert
RND
Barberena
0/0R00/0
Meerschaert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Barberena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Meerschaert · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
Barberena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Gerald MeerschaertRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
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L · Sub · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 5.5KO/TKO
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