UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura
Sydney, Australia
18 Nov 2017
Middleweight
VS
56%
Theodorou
44%
Kelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
ET
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
16 – 3
6'1"75" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
DK
Daniel Kelly
13 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide48 yrsSouthpaw70" reach6'0"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Theodorou

This is a genuine toss-up — Theodorou at 56% vs Kelly at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Theodorou connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelly has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Theodorou
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
75"+
Reach
70"
37+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Theodorou
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.2
16.0
52.0
Performance Avg
44.4
38
Quality of Victory
34
80
Momentum Score
65
Theodorou
Kelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
10
9
Body
2
15
Leg
1
RangeRange
34Distance10
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Theodorou
Kelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Theodorou
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
32
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Theodorou
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
65
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Theodorou
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Theodorou
Kelly
Striking4.0 / 2.9Volume7.5 / 6.5Grappling1.8 / 2.9Wrestling1.3 / 2.0Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure3.9 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Theodorou
Strike Zones
Kelly
Theodorou
Attacking
15HEAD9BODY15LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Kelly
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD9BODY15LEGS39 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Theodorou targets the head (38% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (77% of attacks) — Theodorou absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Theodorou
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0

Theodorou · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.3W5.8L2014-042015-122017-072018-122019-05
WinLossTrend

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W1.8L5.5L1.5L2014-112015-112017-032018-05
WinLossTrend

Theodorou · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · 2017-07

Kelly · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11

News & Media

Elias Theodorou · Daniel Kelly
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