UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Welterweight
VS
71%
Thompson
29%
Pettis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Thompson
Thompson is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thompson
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
72"
43
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thompson
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
18.8
48.9
Performance Avg
52.6
43
Quality of Victory
51
45
Momentum Score
72
Thompson
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
4
5
Body
3
8
Leg
13
RangeRange
30Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Thompson
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thompson
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Thompson
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
72
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Thompson
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
ThompsonPettis
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedPettis
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (57% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the legs (65% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03