UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Dallas, USA
15 Mar 2014
Welterweight
VS
71%
Gastelum
29%
Story
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gastelum
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gastelum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Story has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Story
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
34+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gastelum
Story
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
17.0
47.4
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
65
Gastelum
Story
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
2
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance11
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Gastelum
Story
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Story
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Gastelum
Story
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
65
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Story
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Story
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
GastelumStory
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedStory
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (75% of attacks) — Story absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Story targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Story
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Story · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Story · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R5
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.8Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03