METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Dallas, USA
15 Mar 2014
Welterweight
VS
71%
Gastelum
29%
Story
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kelvin GastelumwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rick Story · UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gastelum
→
Actual result
Gastelum wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Gastelum is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Story has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumStory
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Story
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
34+
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Gastelum
Story
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
17.0
47.4
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
35
28
Momentum Score
65
Gastelum
Story
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.3
Style: Volume
6.6
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
2
Body
3
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
7Distance11
5Clinch3
0Ground0
Gastelum
Story
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gastelum
Story
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
19/28 fights
Gastelum
Story
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
65
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Gastelum
Story
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Story
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
GastelumStory
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedStory
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (75% of attacks) — Story absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Story targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Story
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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Story · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R5
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UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Leonardo MafraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
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UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03