UFC 39: The Warriors Return
Uncasville, USA
27 Sept 2002
Heavyweight
VS
49%
McGee
51%
Rizzo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rizzo
This is a genuine toss-up — McGee at 49% vs Rizzo at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
McGee has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: McGee throws more volume but Rizzo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
McGee's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rizzo has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
McGee
Rizzo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'10"+
Height
6'1"
49+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
McGee
Rizzo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
21.3
56.0
Performance Avg
53.4
60
Quality of Victory
46
51
Momentum Score
91
McGee
Rizzo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.8
33%
Strike Accuracy
39%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
3
Body
0
1
Leg
10
RangeRange
17Distance14
0Clinch0
0Ground0
McGee
Rizzo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
McGee
Rizzo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
McGee
Rizzo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
91
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
McGee
Rizzo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGee
Rizzo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
McGeeRizzo
Strike Zones
McGee
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedRizzo
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGee targets the head (76% of attacks) — Rizzo absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Rizzo targets the legs (71% of attacks) — McGee absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGee
RND
Rizzo
0/0R00/0
McGee · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Rizzo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
McGee · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Tim SylviaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 44: Undisputed · 2003-09
W · KO · R1
Alexandre DantasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 41: Onslaught · 2003-02
W · KO · R1
Pedro RizzoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 39: The Warriors Return · 2002-09
L · KO · R2
Josh BarnettRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 28: High Stakes · 2000-11
Rizzo · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ricco RodriguezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 45: Revolution · 2003-11
W · R2
Tra TelligmanRating 4.2UFC 43: Meltdown · 2003-06
L · Dec · R3
Vladimir MatyushenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 41: Onslaught · 2003-02
L · KO · R1
Gan McGeeRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 39: The Warriors Return · 2002-09
W · KO · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 36: Worlds Collide · 2002-03