UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Lightweight
VS
67%
Diaz
33%
Thomson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:44
ND
Nate Diaz
22 – 13
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 35
JT
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
22 – 9
Striker3-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Diaz

Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Thomson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Diaz
Thomson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
41+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Thomson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
17.0
53.4
Performance Avg
45.1
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
43
Diaz
Thomson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
16
2
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
4Clinch8
1Ground8
Diaz
Thomson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
Thomson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
7/31 fights
Diaz
Thomson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Thomson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diaz
Thomson
Striking2.4 / 7.5Volume3.2 / 3.5Grappling5.6 / 0.8Wrestling3.9 / 0.6Submission6.3 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Diaz
Strike Zones
Thomson
Diaz
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD4BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Thomson
Attacking
16HEAD4BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (73% of attacks) — Thomson absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Thomson targets the head (76% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diaz
RND
Thomson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

Thomson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L5.3W5.5L6.2L6.0L2003-092004-082014-012015-07
WinLossTrend

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

Thomson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
L · Dec · R5
Benson HendersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
W · KO · R2
Nate DiazRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Yves EdwardsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 49: Unfinished Business · 2004-08

News & Media

Nate Diaz · Josh Thomson
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