METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Lightweight
VS
67%
Diaz
33%
Thomson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:44
★ Official Result
Josh ThomsonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:44
def. Nate Diaz · UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Thomson wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Thomson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazThomson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Thomson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
71"
41+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
Thomson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
17.0
53.4
Performance Avg
45.1
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
43
Diaz
Thomson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
7.5
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
6.0
3.2
Style: Volume
3.5
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
16
2
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
4Clinch8
1Ground8
Diaz
Thomson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
10
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Thomson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
7/31 fights
Diaz
Thomson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Diaz
Thomson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Thomson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
DiazThomson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedThomson
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (73% of attacks) — Thomson absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Thomson targets the head (76% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Thomson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
Thomson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
King GreenDecision
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · 2014-07
L · Dec · R5
Benson HendersonDecision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
W · KO · R2
Nate DiazKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Yves EdwardsKO/TKO
UFC 49: Unfinished Business · 2004-08