UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Macau, China
23 Nov 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
71%
Mingyang
29%
Diaz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mingyang
Mingyang is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mingyang has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Mingyang has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mingyang
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+79"
27+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mingyang
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
75.5
30.6
66.0
Performance Avg
28.3
60
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
40
Mingyang
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.5
3.0
66%
Strike Accuracy
51%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
4
2
Body
5
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance9
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Mingyang
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mingyang
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/26 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Mingyang
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Mingyang
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mingyang
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
1.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
MingyangDiaz
Strike Zones
Mingyang
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mingyang targets the head (53% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the body (56% of attacks) — Mingyang absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mingyang
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mingyang · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Mingyang · Last 5
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · KO · R2
Johnny WalkerRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Ozzy DiazRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Brendson RibeiroRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Diaz · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Ateba GautierRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Djorden SantosRating 4.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11