UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Flyweight
VS
42%
Erceg
58%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Costa
This is a genuine toss-up — Erceg at 42% vs Costa at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Erceg
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
67"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Erceg
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.4
62.9
43.6
Performance Avg
53.0
31
Quality of Victory
55
60
Momentum Score
85
Erceg
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
50%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
11
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
14Clinch13
0Ground0
Erceg
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erceg
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Erceg
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Erceg
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erceg
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
ErcegCosta
Strike Zones
Erceg
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedCosta
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erceg targets the body (58% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erceg
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Erceg · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Erceg · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
Costa · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R2
Jimmy FlickRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06