METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Flyweight
VS
38%
Erceg
62%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Steve ErcegwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alessandro Costa · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Erceg wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Erceg has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Risk flags
Erceg's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Costa has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ErcegCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Erceg
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
67"
31
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Erceg
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.1
65.6
40.8
Performance Avg
57.9
31
Quality of Victory
55
45
Momentum Score
85
Erceg
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.1
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
3.1
Style: Pressure
8.9
7.5
Style: Volume
1.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
7
11
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
14Clinch13
0Ground0
Erceg
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erceg
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/18 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Erceg
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
85
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Erceg
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erceg
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.9
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
ErcegCosta
Strike Zones
Erceg
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedCosta
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erceg targets the body (58% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erceg
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
Erceg · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceKO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R1
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05