UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Kelleher
56%
Vera
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:18
Brian
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
24 – 16
5'6"66" reachSwitch39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Marlon
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23 – 12
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsSwitch70" reach5'8"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Vera

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 44% vs Vera at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kelleher throws more volume but Vera connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelleher
Vera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+70"
39
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Switch
Kelleher
Vera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
51.4
44.5
Performance Avg
50.4
43
Quality of Victory
46
61
Momentum Score
39
Kelleher
Vera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
3
Body
2
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance4
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Kelleher
Vera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Vera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
26/35 fights
Kelleher
Vera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
39
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Vera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
73%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelleher
Vera
Striking3.4 / 5.8Volume3.9 / 3.3Grappling3.9 / 2.8Wrestling2.7 / 1.9Submission3.8 / 2.7Pressure5.8 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Kelleher
Strike Zones
Vera
Kelleher
Attacking
2HEAD3BODY3LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Vera
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD3BODY3LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the body (38% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Vera targets the head (40% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelleher
RND
Vera
0/0R00/0

Kelleher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.3L5.5W4.5W4.0L2.4L5.8W5.2W5.5L5.0W6.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L2.6L2.6L1.7L2017-062018-122021-022023-122024-07
WinLossTrend

Vera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5L5.2W6.3L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.5L5.7L5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.5W6.8L6.5W6.0L5.3W5.5W5.7W5.4W7.0L5.0W7.0L6.6L6.6L7.2L2014-112018-022020-082023-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Kelleher · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

Vera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
David MartinezRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 7
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Brian Kelleher · Marlon Vera
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