UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Phoenix, USA
15 Jan 2017
Featherweight
VS
75%
Rodriguez
25%
Penn
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:24
Yair
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21 – 6
5'11"71" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 66
BP
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
16 – 14
Well-Rounded7-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

Rodriguez is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Penn connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Penn has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rodriguez
Penn
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Penn
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.4
22.2
60.2
Performance Avg
56.9
51
Quality of Victory
63
100
Momentum Score
100
Rodriguez
Penn
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
16Ground0
Rodriguez
Penn
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Penn
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
27/30 fights
Rodriguez
Penn
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Rodriguez
Penn
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
83%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rodriguez
Penn
Striking5.1 / 6.0Volume5.8 / 1.6Grappling2.0 / 2.9Wrestling1.4 / 2.0Submission0.9 / 3.3Pressure5.4 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.6
Rodriguez
Strike Zones
Penn
Rodriguez
Attacking
18HEAD0BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Penn
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD0BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rodriguez
RND
Penn
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.4W5.9W4.7W5.1W4.8L6.0W5.0W6.6L6.4W5.2W4.2L4.1L4.5W2014-112016-082019-102023-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Penn · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W3.4L5.4W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L2.8L3.7L5.5L1.5L6.0L2001-052006-032009-122017-012019-05
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

Penn · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

News & Media

Yair Rodriguez · BJ Penn
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