UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee
Rochester, USA
18 May 2019
Lightweight
VS
80%
Oliveira
20%
Lentz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:11
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
Oliveira is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
68"
36+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
16.0
58.6
Performance Avg
45.3
51
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
53
Oliveira
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
6
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance0
3Clinch4
5Ground2
Oliveira
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Oliveira
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
53
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Oliveira
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
17
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Lentz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
OliveiraLentz
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLentz
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10