UFC 70: Nations Collide
Manchester, United Kingdom
21 Apr 2007
Heavyweight
VS
71%
Arlovski
29%
Werdum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Andrei
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34 – 24
6'3"77" reachOrthodox47 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 49
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Arlovski

Arlovski is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Werdum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Arlovski's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Arlovski
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
47+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arlovski
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.1
20.4
50.5
Performance Avg
57.8
47
Quality of Victory
52
94
Momentum Score
72
Arlovski
Werdum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
9 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance6
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Arlovski
Werdum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arlovski
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
42/58 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Arlovski
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
72
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Arlovski
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
48%
67%
9
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Arlovski
Werdum
Striking5.0 / 4.7Volume5.3 / 4.0Grappling1.9 / 3.5Wrestling1.4 / 2.4Submission0.9 / 3.3Pressure5.0 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Arlovski
Strike Zones
Werdum
Arlovski
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Werdum
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Arlovski targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the head (83% of attacks) — Arlovski absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Arlovski
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Arlovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W4.0L4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.6L2.1L2.8L1.9L5.9L4.5W4.5W5.9L5.5L5.7L4.5W2.6L5.2W5.1W5.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W2.1L3.1L7.0L6.5L2000-112006-122017-062021-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Arlovski · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Don'Tale MayesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

News & Media

Andrei Arlovski · Fabricio Werdum
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