UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
Houston, USA
8 Feb 2020
Heavyweight
VS
20%
Adams
80%
Tafa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tafa
Tafa is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Tafa throws more volume but Adams connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Adams's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tafa has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Adams
Tafa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'0"
80"+
Reach
74"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Adams
Tafa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
66.1
40.0
Performance Avg
53.8
50
Quality of Victory
60
43
Momentum Score
98
Adams
Tafa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
54%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
2
Body
0
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance8
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Adams
Tafa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Adams
Tafa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Adams
Tafa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
98
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Adams
Tafa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Adams
Tafa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
AdamsTafa
Strike Zones
Adams
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTafa
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Adams targets the head (43% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Tafa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Adams absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Adams
RND
Tafa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Adams · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Tafa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Adams · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Justin TafaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
L · KO · R1
Greg HardyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Arjan BhullarRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · KO · R3
Chris de la RochaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
Tafa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Upcoming
Austen LaneUFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Parker PorterRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02