UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Dallas, USA
30 Jul 2022
Welterweight
VS
44%
Morono
56%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Semelsberger
This is a genuine toss-up — Morono at 44% vs Semelsberger at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Morono throws more volume but Semelsberger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Morono's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Morono
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+75"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Morono
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
45.1
43.3
Performance Avg
41.6
35
Quality of Victory
39
20
Momentum Score
84
Morono
Semelsberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
8
3
Body
11
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
26Distance20
3Clinch6
0Ground0
Morono
Semelsberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morono
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Morono
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
84
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Morono
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Morono
Semelsberger
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
MoronoSemelsberger
Strike Zones
Morono
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedSemelsberger
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Morono targets the head (90% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the body (42% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Morono
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Semelsberger · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Morono · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8Decision
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