UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Catch Weight
VS
87%
Bukauskas
13%
Edwards
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Modestas
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
6'3"76" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Christian
Christian Edwards
"Pain"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded27 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'5"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bukauskas

Bukauskas is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bukauskas has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Striking split: Bukauskas throws more volume but Edwards connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bukauskas
Edwards
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+78"
32
Age
+27
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bukauskas
Edwards
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
7.8
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Bukauskas
Edwards
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
74%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
5
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance11
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Bukauskas
Edwards
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Edwards
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
1/13 fights
Bukauskas
Edwards
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Bukauskas
Edwards
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bukauskas
Edwards
Striking5.0 / 0.0Volume5.2 / 0.0Grappling2.2 / 0.0Wrestling1.5 / 0.0Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Bukauskas
Strike Zones
Edwards
Bukauskas
Attacking
3HEAD5BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Edwards
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD5BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the body (50% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Edwards targets the head (57% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bukauskas
RND
Edwards
0/0R00/0

Bukauskas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W3.0L6.5L3.7L5.5W4.5W3.9L5.9W5.0W4.8W5.7W5.2L4.5W2020-072023-022025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Bukauskas · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

Edwards · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05

News & Media

Modestas Bukauskas · Christian Edwards
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