METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Welterweight
VS
31%
Alves
69%
Means
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:38
★ Official Result
Tim MeanswinsSubmissionR1 · 2:38
def. Thiago Alves · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Means
→
Actual result
Means wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Means holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesMeans
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
36.5
47.3
Performance Avg
45.2
42
Quality of Victory
41
63
Momentum Score
40
Alves
Means
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
5.4
Style: Pressure
5.3
4.3
Style: Volume
4.8
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
3
Body
8
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance12
1Clinch2
0Ground9
Alves
Means
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Alves
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
53%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Means
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
AlvesMeans
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedMeans
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (54% of attacks) — Means absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (61% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliDecision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
Means · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeSubmission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10