UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Washington, USA
7 Dec 2019
Welterweight
VS
31%
Alves
69%
Means
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:38
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Tim
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
33 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Means

Means holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Alves has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Means has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Means has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Alves
Means
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Means
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
36.5
47.3
Performance Avg
45.2
42
Quality of Victory
41
63
Momentum Score
40
Alves
Means
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
3
Body
8
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance12
1Clinch2
0Ground9
Alves
Means
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Means
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
30/50 fights
Alves
Means
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Means
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
53%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Means
Striking5.8 / 5.0Volume4.3 / 4.8Grappling1.5 / 2.2Wrestling1.0 / 1.5Submission0.7 / 1.3Pressure5.4 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Alves
Strike Zones
Means
Alves
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY3LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD8BODY1LEGS23 absorbed
Means
Attacking
14HEAD8BODY1LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY3LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (54% of attacks) — Means absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Means targets the head (61% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Means
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Means · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L6.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5W1.9L5.2W5.2W2.8L4.5W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.2L5.0W3.7L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.4L6.1L2.8L5.5W3.3L1.7L2012-022015-042018-112022-102024-10
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Means · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Tim Means
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