UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Women's Strawweight
VS
49%
Waterson-Gomez
51%
Casey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
5'3"62" reachOrthodox40 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
CC
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10 – 10
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Casey

This is a genuine toss-up — Waterson-Gomez at 49% vs Casey at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Waterson-Gomez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Waterson-Gomez's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
62"
Reach
+67"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
27.5
36.8
Performance Avg
40.3
35
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
73
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
8
Body
2
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance4
1Clinch2
3Ground3
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
72
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/31 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
73
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Waterson-Gomez
Casey
Striking0.8 / 2.5Volume6.1 / 4.8Grappling4.3 / 3.9Wrestling3.0 / 2.7Submission3.3 / 3.3Pressure3.5 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Waterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
Casey
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
9HEAD8BODY5LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Casey
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD8BODY5LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (41% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (56% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Waterson-Gomez
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.7L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.6W5.5L5.0W5.2L6.1L4.5W5.5L2015-072016-112018-082021-032022-07
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

Casey · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Cortney Casey
← Back to fights