UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Sydney, Australia
31 Jan 2026
Lightweight
VS
44%
Fiziev
56%
Ruffy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:30
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ruffy
This is a genuine toss-up — Fiziev at 44% vs Ruffy at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ruffy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Ruffy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Fiziev's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Fiziev
Ruffy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
33
Age
+29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Fiziev
Ruffy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
68.7
45.6
Performance Avg
62.0
37
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
87
Fiziev
Ruffy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
57%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
32
8
Body
2
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance24
0Clinch1
0Ground12
Fiziev
Ruffy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Fiziev
Ruffy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/15 fights
Fiziev
Ruffy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
87
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Fiziev
Ruffy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Fiziev
Ruffy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
FizievRuffy
Strike Zones
Fiziev
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedRuffy
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Fiziev targets the body (40% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Ruffy targets the head (86% of attacks) — Fiziev absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Fiziev
RND
Ruffy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Fiziev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ruffy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Fiziev · Last 5
Upcoming
Manuel TorresUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mauricio RuffyRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
Ruffy · Last 5
Upcoming
Michael ChandlerUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Rafael FizievRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11