UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
30 May 2020
Bantamweight
VS
51%
Smolka
49%
Kenney
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:03
LS
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17 – 9
5'9"68" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
CK
Casey Kenney
16 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'7"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smolka

This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 51% vs Kenney at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smolka
Kenney
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smolka
Kenney
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
25.8
46.5
Performance Avg
43.5
46
Quality of Victory
31
60
Momentum Score
55
Smolka
Kenney
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
15
14
Body
5
0
Leg
12
RangeRange
16Distance31
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Smolka
Kenney
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Kenney
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Smolka
Kenney
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Smolka
Kenney
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smolka
Kenney
Striking5.9 / 1.3Volume2.9 / 7.7Grappling2.6 / 3.5Wrestling1.8 / 2.5Submission2.5 / 2.0Pressure6.7 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Smolka
Strike Zones
Kenney
Smolka
Attacking
4HEAD14BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY12LEGS32 absorbed
Kenney
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY12LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD14BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (78% of attacks) — Kenney absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Kenney targets the head (47% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smolka
RND
Kenney
0/0R00/0

Smolka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.4L5.5L5.6L5.7L5.9W1.7L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L4.8L2014-012016-072018-112021-122022-05
WinLossTrend

Kenney · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W6.8L5.0W5.1W5.3W5.5L6.8L2019-032020-022020-102021-032021-08
WinLossTrend

Smolka · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

Kenney · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
L · Dec · R3
Dominick CruzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
W · Sub · R1
Louis SmolkaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05

News & Media

Louis Smolka · Casey Kenney
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