METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Las Vegas, USA
30 May 2020
Bantamweight
VS
62%
Smolka
38%
Kenney
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:03
★ Official Result
Casey KenneywinsSubmissionR1 · 3:03
def. Louis Smolka · UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smolka
→
Actual result
Kenney wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smolka holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Kenney has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smolka has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmolkaKenney
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smolka
Kenney
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
68"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Smolka
Kenney
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
16.4
46.5
Performance Avg
43.5
46
Quality of Victory
31
60
Momentum Score
55
Smolka
Kenney
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.9
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
3.3
2.9
Style: Volume
7.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
15
14
Body
5
0
Leg
12
RangeRange
16Distance31
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Smolka
Kenney
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smolka
Kenney
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
94
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Smolka
Kenney
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
55
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Smolka
Kenney
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
20%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smolka
Kenney
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
SmolkaKenney
Strike Zones
Smolka
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedKenney
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (78% of attacks) — Kenney absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Kenney targets the head (47% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smolka
RND
Kenney
0/0R00/0
Smolka · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Davey GrantKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Kenney · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · 2021-08
L · Dec · R3
Dominick CruzDecision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodDecision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
W · Sub · R1
Louis SmolkaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05