UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Catch Weight
VS
53%
Ortega
47%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
5'8"69" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 62
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 53% vs Sterling at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ortega has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Ortega throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ortega
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+71"
35+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
54.2
53.7
Performance Avg
54.2
48
Quality of Victory
38
80
Momentum Score
71
Ortega
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
17
3
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch2
0Ground11
Ortega
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ortega
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/21 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Ortega
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ortega
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortega
Sterling
Striking5.0 / 2.7Volume2.2 / 6.5Grappling4.3 / 3.2Wrestling3.0 / 2.3Submission5.0 / 2.2Pressure8.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Ortega
Strike Zones
Sterling
Ortega
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD6BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Sterling
Attacking
17HEAD6BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (70% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortega
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Brian Ortega · Aljamain Sterling
← Back to fights