METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Catch Weight
VS
53%
Ortega
47%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aljamain SterlingwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Brian Ortega · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ortega
→
Actual result
Sterling wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 53% vs Sterling at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ortega has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Ortega throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OrtegaSterling
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ortega
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+71"
35+
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
54.2
53.7
Performance Avg
54.2
48
Quality of Victory
38
80
Momentum Score
71
Ortega
Sterling
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
17
3
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch2
0Ground11
Ortega
Sterling
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ortega
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/21 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Ortega
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ortega
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ortega
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
OrtegaSterling
Strike Zones
Ortega
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedSterling
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (70% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ortega
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
Ortega · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Ortega · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08