METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Catch Weight
VS
53%
Ortega
47%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
5'8"69" reachSwitch35 yrs2-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 62
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 54
★ Official Result
Aljamain SterlingwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Brian Ortega · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ortega
→
Actual result
Sterling wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Ortega at 53% vs Sterling at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ortega has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Risk flags

Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
OrtegaSterling
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ortega
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
+71"
35+
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Ortega
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
54.2
53.7
Performance Avg
54.2
48
Quality of Victory
38
80
Momentum Score
71
Ortega
Sterling
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
4.7
2.2
Style: Volume
6.5
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
17
3
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance11
0Clinch2
0Ground11
Ortega
Sterling
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ortega
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Ortega
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ortega
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ortega
Sterling
Striking5.0 / 2.7Volume2.2 / 6.5Grappling4.3 / 3.2Wrestling3.0 / 2.3Submission5.0 / 2.2Pressure8.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Ortega
Strike Zones
Sterling
Ortega
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD6BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Sterling
Attacking
17HEAD6BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ortega targets the head (70% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ortega
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0

Ortega · Last 5

Upcoming
Renato Moicano
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain Sterling
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego Lopes
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair Rodriguez
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair Rodriguez
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef Zalal
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian Ortega
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar Evloev
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin Kattar
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'Malley
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Brian Ortega · Aljamain Sterling
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