UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Featherweight
VS
8%
Silva
92%
Marshall
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:29
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Marshall
Marshall is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Marshall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Marshall throws more volume but Silva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Silva's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva
Marshall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+72"
39
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Silva
Marshall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
4.3
51.0
0.0
Performance Avg
46.7
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
60
Silva
Marshall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
32%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Silva
Marshall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Silva
Marshall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/13 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Silva
Marshall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Silva
Marshall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Silva
Marshall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
SilvaMarshall
Strike Zones
Silva
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMarshall
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Silva targets the head (40% of attacks) — Marshall absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Marshall targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Silva
RND
Marshall
0/0R00/0
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Marshall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Silva · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Francis MarshallRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Muhammad NaimovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 4Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
Marshall · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Lucas BrennanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Erik SilvaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Mairon SantosRating 7.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08