UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
44%
VanZant
56%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:21
PV
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8 – 5
5'4"65" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Waterson-Gomez

This is a genuine toss-up — VanZant at 44% vs Waterson-Gomez at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

VanZant has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Waterson-Gomez throws more volume but VanZant connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

VanZant's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
62"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
26.5
49.2
Performance Avg
36.8
45
Quality of Victory
35
84
Momentum Score
0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
58%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
2
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance10
1Clinch2
0Ground0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
42
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Striking5.1 / 0.8Volume2.7 / 6.1Grappling3.7 / 4.3Wrestling2.6 / 3.0Submission4.0 / 3.3Pressure7.3 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
VanZant
Strike Zones
Waterson-Gomez
VanZant
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯VanZant targets the body (40% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (50% of attacks) — VanZant absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

VanZant
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0

VanZant · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5W4.5W5.5W5.4L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.2W1.6L2014-112015-122018-012020-07
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

VanZant · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6
Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

News & Media

Paige VanZant · Michelle Waterson-Gomez
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