METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Women's Strawweight
VS
44%
VanZant
56%
Waterson-Gomez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:21
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
Well-Rounded5-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'3"
CFR 27
★ Official Result
Michelle Waterson-GomezwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:21
def. Paige VanZant · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Waterson-Gomez
→
Actual result
Waterson-Gomez wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — VanZant at 44% vs Waterson-Gomez at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
VanZant has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Waterson-Gomez throws more volume but VanZant connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
VanZant's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Waterson-Gomez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VanZantWaterson-Gomez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
62"
32+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
26.5
49.2
Performance Avg
36.8
45
Quality of Victory
35
84
Momentum Score
0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.3
58%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
2
Body
3
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance10
1Clinch2
0Ground0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
42
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
15/31 fights
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
0
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
VanZant
Waterson-Gomez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
VanZantWaterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
VanZant
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedWaterson-Gomez
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯VanZant targets the body (40% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the head (50% of attacks) — VanZant absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
VanZant
RND
Waterson-Gomez
0/0R00/0
VanZant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
VanZant · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Waterson-Gomez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05