METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Lightweight
VS
75%
Ferguson
25%
Rio
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:52
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:52
def. Mike Rio · UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rio has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonRio
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Rio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Rio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
15.2
54.2
Performance Avg
37.0
49
Quality of Victory
45
52
Momentum Score
36
Ferguson
Rio
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
7.8
3.4
Style: Volume
0.5
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Ferguson
Rio
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
6
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Rio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Ferguson
Rio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
36
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Ferguson
Rio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Rio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
FergusonRio
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedRio
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Rio absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Rio targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Rio
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenSubmission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Rio · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Daron CruickshankKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Sub · R1
Francisco TrinaldoSubmission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
W · Sub · R3
John CoferSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12