UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Lightweight
VS
75%
Ferguson
25%
Rio
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rio has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Rio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Rio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
15.2
54.2
Performance Avg
37.0
49
Quality of Victory
45
52
Momentum Score
36
Ferguson
Rio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.5
47%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Ferguson
Rio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Rio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Ferguson
Rio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
36
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Ferguson
Rio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Rio
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
FergusonRio
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedRio
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (60% of attacks) — Rio absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Rio targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Rio
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rio · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Rio · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Daron CruickshankRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2Submission
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Sub · R1
Francisco TrinaldoRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
W · Sub · R3
John CoferRating 5.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12