UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Spann
52%
Preux
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:35
Ryan
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24 – 11
6'5"79" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 43
Ovince
Ovince Saint Preux
27 – 18
Well-Rounded43 yrsSouthpaw80" reach6'3"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Preux

This is a genuine toss-up — Spann at 48% vs Preux at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Spann throws more volume but Preux connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Spann's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Preux has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Spann
Preux
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
79"
Reach
+80"
34+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spann
Preux
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
46.7
54.8
Performance Avg
50.2
50
Quality of Victory
48
10
Momentum Score
72
Spann
Preux
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
48%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
2
Body
0
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
9Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Spann
Preux
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spann
Preux
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/35 fights
Chin rating based on
28/45 fights
Spann
Preux
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
72
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Spann
Preux
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
73%
4
KO / TKO Wins
6
4
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Spann
Preux
Striking5.3 / 5.1Volume2.9 / 3.2Grappling3.7 / 3.3Wrestling2.6 / 2.3Submission4.0 / 3.3Pressure7.5 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Spann
Strike Zones
Preux
Spann
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 absorbed
Preux
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY5LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (56% of attacks) — Preux absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Preux targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Spann
RND
Preux
0/0R00/0

Spann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W2.3L5.0W2.7L5.3W6.0W2.7L6.7L4.8L5.6W4.3L5.0W5.2W2018-092020-092022-112024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Preux · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W6.2W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.0W3.1L4.5W7.3L2.8L6.3L5.9W5.0W5.5W1.5L6.0W6.5L4.0L6.2W5.5L6.1W4.0L3.4L4.5W2.2L5.8W1.9L2013-042015-082017-112020-092024-10
WinLossTrend

Spann · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

Preux · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Philipe LinsRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Tanner BoserRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06

News & Media

Ryan Spann · Ovince Saint Preux
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