UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Welterweight
VS
66%
Oliveira
34%
Sobotta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AO
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22 – 12
5'11"76" reachOrthodox38 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 30
PS
Peter Sobotta
17 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

Oliveira holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Sobotta has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sobotta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oliveira
Sobotta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"+
Reach
75"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Oliveira
Sobotta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
15.1
46.5
Performance Avg
39.8
43
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
50
Oliveira
Sobotta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
39%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
4
Body
4
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance12
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Oliveira
Sobotta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.0
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Sobotta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
10/24 fights
Oliveira
Sobotta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Oliveira
Sobotta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Sobotta
Striking4.7 / 3.3Volume4.0 / 4.8Grappling3.0 / 3.2Wrestling2.1 / 2.2Submission2.7 / 2.5Pressure6.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Sobotta
Oliveira
Attacking
9HEAD4BODY6LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Sobotta
Attacking
7HEAD4BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD4BODY6LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (47% of attacks) — Sobotta absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Sobotta targets the head (58% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Sobotta
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.2L5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.2W4.0L5.2W5.0W3.8L5.5L5.8L5.1W4.5W3.6L2.4L6.2L3.4L2015-032016-102018-122021-042022-03
WinLossTrend

Sobotta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.8W5.2W5.1L5.5L2009-062014-052016-092020-07
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Sobotta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Kyle NokeRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11

News & Media

Alex Oliveira · Peter Sobotta
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