UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Bantamweight
VS
23%
Rivera
77%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JR
Jimmie Rivera
"El Terror"
23 – 5
5'4"68" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sterling

Sterling is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rivera
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
68"
Reach
+71"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rivera
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.8
54.2
43.5
Performance Avg
54.2
30
Quality of Victory
38
58
Momentum Score
71
Rivera
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
37%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
17
2
Body
8
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
7Distance31
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Rivera
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rivera
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/28 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Rivera
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
71
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Rivera
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rivera
Sterling
Striking2.7 / 2.7Volume8.1 / 6.5Grappling2.1 / 3.2Wrestling1.4 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure2.9 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Rivera
Strike Zones
Sterling
Rivera
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD8BODY7LEGS32 absorbed
Sterling
Attacking
17HEAD8BODY7LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rivera targets the head (63% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (53% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rivera
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0

Rivera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W6.5L7.0L4.5W6.0L2015-072016-092018-092020-072021-02
WinLossTrend

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Rivera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
John DodsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Jimmie Rivera · Aljamain Sterling
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