UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
45%
Esparza
55%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Tecia
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
15 – 8
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox60" reach5'1"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pennington

This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 45% vs Pennington at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pennington has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Esparza
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
5'1"
63"+
Reach
60"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
49.8
45.9
Performance Avg
39.8
35
Quality of Victory
28
60
Momentum Score
89
Esparza
Pennington
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
0
Body
3
1
Leg
27
RangeRange
15Distance34
0Clinch2
6Ground0
Esparza
Pennington
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Esparza
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Esparza
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Pennington
Striking2.3 / 1.2Volume7.7 / 7.7Grappling2.7 / 2.7Wrestling1.9 / 1.9Submission1.0 / 0.9Pressure3.3 / 2.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Esparza
Strike Zones
Pennington
Esparza
Attacking
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY27LEGS36 absorbed
Pennington
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY27LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
20HEAD0BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (95% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.6W4.5W6.9L4.5W5.2W4.5W6.3L5.5L7.3L6.2L4.5W4.7W4.6W6.7L6.2L4.8W4.5W6.8L2014-122017-072019-082024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Carla EsparzaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Tecia Pennington
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