METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
45%
Esparza
55%
Pennington
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tecia PenningtonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Carla Esparza · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pennington
→
Actual result
Pennington wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 45% vs Pennington at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EsparzaPennington
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Esparza
Pennington
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
5'1"
63"+
Reach
60"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Pennington
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
49.8
45.9
Performance Avg
39.8
35
Quality of Victory
28
60
Momentum Score
89
Esparza
Pennington
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.3
Style: Pressure
2.4
7.7
Style: Volume
7.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
6
0
Body
3
1
Leg
27
RangeRange
15Distance34
0Clinch2
6Ground0
Esparza
Pennington
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Esparza
Pennington
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Esparza
Pennington
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
89
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Esparza
Pennington
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Esparza
Pennington
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
EsparzaPennington
Strike Zones
Esparza
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedPennington
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (95% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Pennington targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Esparza
RND
Pennington
0/0R00/0
Esparza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonDecision
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L · Sub · R2
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W · Dec · R5
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W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanKO/TKO
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Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroDecision
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
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