METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Welterweight
VS
28%
Parsons
72%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:13
★ Official Result
Jacobe SmithwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:13
def. Preston Parsons · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smith is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Parsons's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ParsonsSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Parsons
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
31
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Parsons
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
81.3
28.3
Performance Avg
73.9
25
Quality of Victory
57
50
Momentum Score
100
Parsons
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
4.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
64%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance11
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Parsons
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Parsons
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Parsons
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Parsons
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Parsons
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
ParsonsSmith
Strike Zones
Parsons
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedSmith
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Parsons targets the head (86% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (67% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Parsons
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Parsons · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Parsons · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottRating 6.2Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Smith · Last 3
W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 5.9Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01