METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Welterweight
VS
26%
Parsons
74%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:13
★ Official Result
Jacobe SmithwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:13
def. Preston Parsons · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smith is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Risk flags
Parsons's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ParsonsSmith
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Parsons
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
31
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Parsons
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.0
81.3
28.3
Performance Avg
73.9
25
Quality of Victory
57
50
Momentum Score
100
Parsons
Smith
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
8.7
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
10.0
8.7
Style: Volume
2.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance11
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Parsons
Smith
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Parsons
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Parsons
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Parsons
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Parsons
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
ParsonsSmith
Strike Zones
Parsons
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedSmith
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Parsons targets the head (86% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (67% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Parsons
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Parsons · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Smith · Last 3
W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceSubmission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01