UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Welterweight
VS
28%
Parsons
72%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:13
Preston
Preston Parsons
"Pressure"
11 – 6
5'11"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
Jacobe
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
12 – 0
Knockout Artist3-fight win streak30 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'10"
CFR 81

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Parsons's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Parsons
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+72"
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Parsons
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
81.3
28.3
Performance Avg
73.9
25
Quality of Victory
57
50
Momentum Score
100
Parsons
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
4.6
53%
Strike Accuracy
64%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
1
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance11
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Parsons
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Parsons
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Parsons
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Parsons
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Parsons
Smith
Striking0.7 / 8.7Volume8.7 / 2.0Grappling2.4 / 2.7Wrestling1.7 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure1.0 / 10.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
Parsons
Strike Zones
Smith
Parsons
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Smith
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Parsons targets the head (86% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (67% of attacks) — Parsons absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Parsons
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Parsons · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.4L5.1W5.7L5.0W6.2L3.8L2021-072022-042023-032024-012024-072025-01
WinLossTrend

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.9W5.0W2025-012025-062026-02
WinLossTrend

Parsons · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jacobe SmithRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Oban ElliottRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · Dec · R3
Trevin GilesRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Evan ElderRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Smith · Last 3

W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Preston ParsonsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01

News & Media

Preston Parsons · Jacobe Smith
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