UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Fortaleza, Brazil
2 Feb 2019
Welterweight
VS
26%
Alves
74%
Griffin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Griffin
Griffin is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Griffin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alves
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
46.4
47.3
Performance Avg
39.0
42
Quality of Victory
37
63
Momentum Score
74
Alves
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
3
Body
6
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance5
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Alves
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Alves
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
74
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alves
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
38%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
AlvesGriffin
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the head (44% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the body (55% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07