UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Welterweight
VS
53%
Cote
47%
Riggs
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PC
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
23 – 11
5'11"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
JR
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
44 – 17
Well-Rounded43 yrsSouthpaw70" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cote

This is a genuine toss-up — Cote at 53% vs Riggs at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Riggs has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cote's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Riggs has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cote
Riggs
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
70"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cote
Riggs
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
14.5
41.8
Performance Avg
39.3
38
Quality of Victory
38
79
Momentum Score
64
Cote
Riggs
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
4
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch4
4Ground2
Cote
Riggs
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cote
Riggs
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
6
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
12/61 fights
Cote
Riggs
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
64
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Cote
Riggs
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
40%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cote
Riggs
Striking5.0 / 2.8Volume5.0 / 2.4Grappling1.2 / 2.1Wrestling0.8 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.2 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
Cote
Strike Zones
Riggs
Cote
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Riggs
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cote targets the head (100% of attacks) — Riggs absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Riggs targets the head (67% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cote
RND
Riggs
0/0R00/0

Cote · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L4.0L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.8L2.8L5.5L5.5L4.0W4.5W4.5W6.1L4.5W5.5W5.2W4.0L5.5L2004-102008-012012-112016-012017-04
WinLossTrend

Riggs · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0105.2W1.5L4.2W1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L1.5L5.5L4.2W1.5L2004-082005-112006-082015-042016-02
WinLossTrend

Cote · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · KO · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04

Riggs · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Chris CamozziRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · R2
Ron StallingsRating 4.2
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Dec · R3
Patrick CoteRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
L · Sub · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
Diego SanchezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs · 2006-12

News & Media

Patrick Cote · Joe Riggs
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