UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Lightweight
VS
95%
Burns
5%
Moret
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Burns has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Burns's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns
Moret
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
71"
Reach
+73"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Burns
Moret
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.8
2.1
48.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
28
Momentum Score
0
Burns
Moret
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
37%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
2
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Burns
Moret
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
5
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Burns
Moret
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/32 fights
Chin rating based on
3/19 fights
Burns
Moret
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
0
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Burns
Moret
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Burns
Moret
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BurnsMoret
Strike Zones
Burns
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMoret
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Burns targets the head (82% of attacks) — Moret absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Moret targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Burns
RND
Moret
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Moret · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Moret · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alex WhiteRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
Gilbert BurnsRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04