UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Oleinik
43%
Werdum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AO
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60 – 17
6'2"80" reachOrthodox48 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 27
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oleinik

This is a genuine toss-up — Oleinik at 57% vs Werdum at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Werdum has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oleinik's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Oleinik
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
80"+
Reach
77"
48
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oleinik
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
20.4
52.0
Performance Avg
57.8
51
Quality of Victory
52
39
Momentum Score
72
Oleinik
Werdum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
2
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance2
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Oleinik
Werdum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oleinik
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
28
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/77 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Oleinik
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
72
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Oleinik
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oleinik
Werdum
Striking2.2 / 4.7Volume1.9 / 4.0Grappling6.5 / 3.5Wrestling4.5 / 2.4Submission7.8 / 3.3Pressure7.8 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
6.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
7.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Oleinik
Strike Zones
Werdum
Oleinik
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Werdum
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oleinik targets the head (79% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the body (50% of attacks) — Oleinik absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oleinik
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0

Oleinik · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.7L5.0W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W4.5W3.3L1.8L6.0L5.0W5.5L2014-062017-112020-012022-042022-10
WinLossTrend

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Oleinik · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jared VanderaaRating 5
Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

News & Media

Aleksei Oleinik · Fabricio Werdum
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