UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Middleweight
VS
35%
Machida
65%
Rockhold
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rockhold
Rockhold holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Machida has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rockhold has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Rockhold has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rockhold has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Machida
Rockhold
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+77"
47
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Machida
Rockhold
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
35.5
53.8
Performance Avg
60.7
45
Quality of Victory
65
78
Momentum Score
85
Machida
Rockhold
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
62%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
4
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Machida
Rockhold
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Rockhold
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/22 fights
Machida
Rockhold
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
85
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Machida
Rockhold
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Machida
Rockhold
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.1
MachidaRockhold
Strike Zones
Machida
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedRockhold
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Rockhold absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Rockhold targets the head (42% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Machida
RND
Rockhold
0/0R00/0
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rockhold · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Rockhold · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 6.5Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R2
David BranchRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06