UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
Newark, USA
27 Apr 2013
Lightweight
VS
45%
Khabilov
55%
Medeiros
Win Probability
RK
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
24 – 4
5'8"73" reachOrthodox39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
YM
Yancy Medeiros
15 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'10"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Medeiros

This is a genuine toss-up — Khabilov at 45% vs Medeiros at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Medeiros has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Medeiros has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Medeiros has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Khabilov
Medeiros
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
73"
Reach
+75"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Khabilov
Medeiros
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.9
24.4
48.2
Performance Avg
45.4
29
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
39
Khabilov
Medeiros
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Khabilov
Medeiros
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.4
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Khabilov
Medeiros
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
14
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/28 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Khabilov
Medeiros
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Khabilov
Medeiros
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
10%
83%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Khabilov
Medeiros
Striking2.5 / 4.2Volume7.9 / 2.2Grappling1.9 / 4.4Wrestling1.3 / 3.1Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.0 / 7.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.1
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Khabilov
Strike Zones
Medeiros
Khabilov
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Medeiros
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Khabilov targets the head (67% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Medeiros targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Khabilov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Khabilov
RND
Medeiros
0/0R00/0

Khabilov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.2W4.0W4.5W3.4L5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W6.5L4.5W2012-122015-022016-122019-11
WinLossTrend

Medeiros · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0104.0L1.9L5.5W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.2W5.5W1.5L2.8L6.0L5.5L2013-042015-062017-062020-022021-06
WinLossTrend

Khabilov · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Sergey KhandozhkoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Jason SaggoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12

Medeiros · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Rustam Khabilov · Yancy Medeiros
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