UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
18 May 2013
Middleweight
VS
85%
Natal
15%
Zeferino
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Natal
Natal is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Natal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Natal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Natal
Zeferino
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
77"
Reach
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Zeferino
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
2.7
40.5
Performance Avg
0.0
30
Quality of Victory
0
81
Momentum Score
0
Natal
Zeferino
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
3
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Natal
Zeferino
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Zeferino
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
96
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/30 fights
Natal
Zeferino
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Zeferino
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Natal
Zeferino
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NatalZeferino
Strike Zones
Natal
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedZeferino
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (77% of attacks) — Zeferino absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Zeferino targets the head (100% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Natal
RND
Zeferino
0/0R00/0
Natal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Zeferino · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Natal · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Zeferino · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Elias SilverioRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05